Game over

Thursday, October 30, 2008
Time: 7:04 PM

Many of you wondered why I haven't paid that much attention to the race between Chris Murphy and James Galantes BFF David Cappiello.

It's simple:

At this time two years ago, pollsters were all over the 5th Congressional district trying to get a feel of the race between then Congresswoman Nancy Johnson and Murphy. It seemed like every other day there was a new poll conducted by someone as well as a new ad from the two candidates. For those who don't remember, Murphy pulled off a tremendous victory sweeping Johnson on EVERY SINGLE VOTING MACHINE in Danbury.

Well, that was then and this is now...and NOW is BORING. Cappiello's attack ads are LAME and if you really look at the production of his ads, you can clearly tell that all the footage of him came from the same shoot he did a few months back downtown (that's ALWAYS a BAD SIGN).

Cappiello never really had a message...just a laundry list of laughable attacks that were based on the latest headline of the day. Taging Cappiello to his shady past would have been child's play since there is SO MUCH evidence pointing him to questionable decisions...I mean come on, we're talking about a person who worked for a home broker who tool illegal bundled campaign contributions from a trash hauler with connections to the mob folks.

In the end, as most pollsters and pundits knew all along, it just wasn't worth the time for anyone to pay attention to the 5th CD race. Based on Murphy's populatiry, and the incredible bad decisions Cappiello made throughout his campaign (i.e., not doing enough to get his name more known outside Danbury, spending TOO MUCH TIME in Danbury, not establishing a message, too busy hosting fund raisers with the beltway elite, etc), it was pretty much certain that David Cappiello is toast...in a BIG way.

If today's endorsement in the News-Times wasn't enough for you, or if Cappiello's "i know I'm going to lose" closing statements at last night's deabte didn't catch your attention, then the article in today's Courant is basically
the nail in Cappiello's coffin.
Connecticut television viewers were bombarded two years ago with hours of advertisements, often disparaging the two veteran lawmakers and their challengers in Connecticut's 2nd and 5th Congressional districts.

The national political parties pumped millions of dollars into both matchups, considered among the hottest in the nation.

In the end, both challengers won as Democrats swept to power in Congress. Joe Courtney beat Republican Rep. Rob Simmons by a mere 83 votes. And Chris Murphy managed to defeat 24-year-veteran Republican Rep. Nancy Johnson by a 12-percent margin.

Things are a little different this year. As Courtney and Murphy seek second terms, the fervor surrounding the two races has dissipated. Neither seat is targeted by the national parties, despite the incumbents being freshmen. Even the television advertising is sparse compared to the 2006 onslaught.

"There's just the one district now that seems to be competitive now," said Gary Rose, a political science professor at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, referring to the 4th District matchup of Republican Rep. Chris Shays and Democrat Jim Himes.

A University of Connecticut poll conducted in late September of likely voters showed Courtney leading his Republican challenger, former submarine commander Sean Sullivan, 50 percent to 23 percent. UConn has not polled in the 5th District, but Murphy is expected to have the edge over Republican state Sen. David Cappiello.

No matter what Cappiello's says from this point on, even he knows the drill. Everyone gets it, Cappy wants to go out with his head up high but there is NO WAY ANY INTERNAL POLLING HE HAS shows him even within striking distiance of Murphy.

NO WAY.

With Obama's lead in CT at over 20 points, the new number of registered voters tipping overwhelmingly towards the Democrats, and the fact that Murphy's record in the 5th CD is really good, the question isn't who's going to win this race, it's rather if Murphy can land Cappiello the ultimate embarrassment and A: beat him in Danbury or B: lose to Cappiello in Danbury by less than 4 points.

Either way, although most in the poltiical circles won't say it publically, this race is basically over.

...nothing to see here...more along. You want action, then keep your eye on the 4th CD race between Chris Shays and Jim Himes!

posted by ctblogger at 7:04 PM | Permalink|

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